Will the midterms happen on time?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:44:36 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (91.0%). The market has $329K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $329K
- Liquidity: $329K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date. Localized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being "conducted on time" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation: Individual polling places opening late or closing early Individual voting machines malfunctioning Localized power, weather, or connectivity outages However, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not "conducted on time" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressiona…
Sources
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