Will Trump impose martial law?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:14:27 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (35.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (31.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (23.0%). The market has $91K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $91K
- Liquidity: $91K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, ‘martial law’ shall mean the suspension of civil authority and the imposition of military control over designated regions as declared by the President of the United States or Congress. The Payout Criterion does not include mere designation of military control over a specific property, such as for the opening of a new military base.
Sources
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