Will Trump reverse the Lake America renaming?
As of Mon, 07 Sep 2026 18:51:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (8.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (2.0%), Before Oct 1, 2026 (1.0%). The market has $32K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $32K
- Liquidity: $32K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If Donald Trump has taken any signed executive action reversing the renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. Reversal means revoking the direction to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America or restoring the name Lake Ontario for United States official use. Merely delaying implementation or changing unrelated provisions does not qualify. An action covering only the portion of the lake within United States jurisdiction qualifies; adoption by Canada or an international body is not required.
Sources
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