Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (82.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (81.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (70.0%). The market has $1.5M in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.5M
- Liquidity: $1.5M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.