Natalie Harp White House departure announced?
As of Wed, 30 Sep 2026 19:02:31 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (44.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (5.0%), Before Oct 1, 2026 (3.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If Natalie Harp leaves (or announces she will leave) as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Natalie Harp holds both of these titles at the same time. She counts as having left only if she ceases to hold all White House staff positions. Moving to a different title or role inside the White House does not count. This market resolves on a departure announced by Natalie Harp or by the White House, or on a listed source agency reporting that such an announcement has been made or confirmed. Reporting that she is expected to leave, sourced only to unnamed officials and not confirmed by Harp or the White House, does not resolve this market. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions or recusals do not constitute leaving unless she formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If she vacates the role and later re-occupies it, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If she leaves the role due to death, all contracts on her may resolve…
Sources
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