Midterms: which issue matters most to voters?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Economy and cost of living (92.0%), Democracy (13.0%), Iran war and foreign policy (5.0%). The market has $48K in volume and closes on Sat, 06 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy and cost of living | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Democracy | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Iran war and foreign policy | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Abortion | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Crime | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Health care | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Immigration | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $48K
- Liquidity: $48K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Economy and cost of living:
If the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll maps to Economy and cost of living, then the market resolves to Yes. The issue voters rank most important is the strike with the highest value, where a strike's value is the sum of the percentages of all voters for every answer choice that maps to it on the national U.S. House exit poll's most-important-issue question as displayed by the source, whatever its exact title. If more than one such question is displayed, the one asking which issue mattered most to the respondent's vote governs. An answer choice maps to a strike only if its wording contains, as a whole word or phrase and ignoring capitalization and singular or plural form, one of the terms listed for that strike: economy, economic, inflation, price, cost, cost of living, affordability, affordable, job, tax, tariff or trade (Economy and cost of living); Iran, war, foreign policy, national security or terrorism (Iran war and foreign policy); immigration, border or deportation (Immigration); democracy (Democracy); health care or healthcare (Health care); abortion (Abortion); and crime or public safety (Crime). An answer choice containing terms listed for more than one strike maps only to the strike whose term appears first in it. Any other answer choice, including gun policy, maps to no strike and is compared on its own percentage. If such an answer choice has a higher percentage than every strike's value, every market resolves No. If t…
Sources
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