September 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
As of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 12:37:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k (32.0%), U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above (23.0%), U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k (23.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Fri, 02 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k:
If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U3 uses ECONSTAT and NFP growth uses PAYROLLS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Sources
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