How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 10 (98.0%), At least 11 (98.0%), At least 12 (96.0%). The market has $60K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 11 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 12 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 13 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| At least 14 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 15 | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| At least 16 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| At least 17 | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| At least 18 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| At least 19 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| At least 20 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| At least 21 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| At least 22 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $60K
- Liquidity: $60K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 10:
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States…
Sources
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