Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities this year?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 13:24:33 UTC, Kalshi traders price Hawaii Senate (96.0%), California Senate (96.0%), Illinois Senate (96.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii Senate | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| California Senate | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Illinois Senate | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| California Assembly | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Illinois House | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Maryland Senate | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Delaware Senate | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Delaware House | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| New York Assembly | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Connecticut Senate | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| Connecticut House | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| New York Senate | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Colorado House | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Colorado Senate | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Nevada Assembly | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Hawaii Senate:
If the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent general or special election, regardless of any vacancy, appointment or party change since that election. The number shown is that state's constitutional requirement to override a governor's veto, applied to the chamber's full membership, including where the state measures it against members present and voting. Vacancies, appointments and party changes after certification, and special elections held after November 3, 2026, are disregarded. A winner counts as Democratic if the official results show the winner on the Democratic Party's ballot line or, where they show a combined designation, list Democratic first; a winner elected only on another party's line does not count.
Sources
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