How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
As of Fri, 11 Sep 2026 17:19:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Below 7.60 (85.0%), Below 7.50 (66.0%), Below 7.25 (39.0%). The market has $112K in volume and closes on Tue, 26 Dec 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 7.60 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Below 7.50 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Below 7.25 | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Below 7.00 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $112K
- Liquidity: $112K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below 7.60:
If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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