California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price No, ≥1% (66.0%), No, ≥4% (51.0%), No, ≥7% (33.0%). The market has $21K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No, ≥1% | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| No, ≥4% | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| No, ≥7% | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| No, ≥10% | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| No, ≥13% | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| No, ≥16% | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| No, ≥19% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| No, ≥22% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $21K
- Liquidity: $21K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for No, ≥1%:
If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses. If No wins, the margin will be positive; if No loses, the margin will be negative; if No ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Sources
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