Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (56.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (42.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (30.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If the Department of War or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The designation refers to the Department of War's supply-chain-risk designations of Anthropic under 41 U.S.C. 4713 and 10 U.S.C. 3252. An action qualifies only if, as a result, the Department of War or its contractors are permitted to use Anthropic's AI models or services in Department of War work. A rescission qualifies only if no designation then bars that use. A waiver or modification that permits such use for some Department of War programs or contractors qualifies, as does an official Department of War or White House authorization permitting any Department of War component or contractor to use an Anthropic AI model in Department of War work, even if a designation otherwise remains in effect. An action that permits use only by civilian federal agencies does not qualify. A court ruling alone does not qualify unless the Department of War or the White House officially announces an action that permits such use.
Sources
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