US 5Y Treasury yield at 2:00pm ET?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 18:51:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.74% (99.0%), Above 4.75% (99.0%), Above 4.76% (99.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 26 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.74% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.75% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.76% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.73% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.77% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 4.78% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 4.79% | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Above 4.80% | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 4.81% | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Above 4.84% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Above 4.85% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Above 4.83% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 4.86% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 4.87% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 4.82% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.74%:
If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.74% at Oct 26, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Sources
Related markets
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
- How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
- How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
- S&P close price end of 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.