How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.28% or below (100.0%), 5.27% or below (100.0%), 5.25% or below (100.0%). The market has $72K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.28% or below | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| 5.27% or below | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| 5.25% or below | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| 5.26% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.24% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.09% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.23% or below | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.19% or below | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.2% or below | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.22% or below | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.21% or below | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.15% or below | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| 5.17% or below | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| 5.08% or below | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| 5.02% or below | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $72K
- Liquidity: $72K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.99% or below:
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.00% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
Sources
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