US 10Y Treasury yield at 4:00pm ET?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 20:40:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.93% (99.0%), Above 4.92% (99.0%), Above 4.94% (99.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 26 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.93% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.92% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.94% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.91% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.95% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.98% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4.96% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 4.97% | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 5.01% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Above 5.00% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Above 5.05% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 4.99% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 5.02% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 5.04% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 5.03% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.93%:
If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.93% at Oct 26, 2026 at 4:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Sources
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