How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by on Oct 23, 2026?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 15:22:32 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.96% or below (99.0%), 4.98% or below (99.0%), 4.99% or below (99.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 23 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.98% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.99% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.97% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.02% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.01% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.03% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.06% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.07% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.04% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.05% or below | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.93% or below | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| 4.88% or below | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| 4.94% or below | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.94% or below:
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.95% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
Sources
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