RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (71.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (52.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (31.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Mon, 08 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Sources
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