Ukraine coup attempt by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:23:03 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (24.5%), December 31, 2026 (5.5%). The market has $155K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 24.5% | 24.5¢ | 75.5¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $155K
- Liquidity: $77K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for December 31, 2027:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.