Gemini Carbon released by...?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 23:15:52 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (85.0%), November 30 (78.5%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| November 30 | 78.5% | 78.5¢ | 21.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be…
Sources
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