Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:51:46 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 27 (88.5%), October 21 (88.0%), October 28 (88.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Wed, 28 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 | 88.5% | 88.5¢ | 11.5¢ |
| October 21 | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| October 28 | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| October 26 | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| October 30 | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| October 22 | 85.5% | 85.5¢ | 14.5¢ |
| October 24 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| October 25 | 83.5% | 83.5¢ | 16.5¢ |
| October 23 | 82.5% | 82.5¢ | 17.5¢ |
| October 29 | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| October 31 | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| October 17 | 9.6% | 9.6¢ | 90.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $71K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be…
Sources
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