Alaska Senate winner?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:21:27 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mary Peltola (74.0%), Dan Sullivan (27.0%), Gerald Heikes (1.0%). The market has $549K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Dan Sullivan | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Gerald Heikes | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Daniel J. Sullivan | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Richard Grayson | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Sid Hill | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Ann Diener | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $549K
- Liquidity: $549K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mary Peltola:
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presi…
Sources
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