10Y US Treasury yield on Friday?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 19:06:55 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.86% or above (76.0%), 4.88% or above (68.0%), 4.9% or above (45.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 06 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.86% or above | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| 4.88% or above | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| 4.9% or above | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| 4.94% or above | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| 4.92% or above | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| 4.96% or above | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.96% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 6, 2026, or one week following Nov 6, 2026.
Sources
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