10Y US Treasury yield on Friday?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.85% or above (90.0%), 4.81% or above (89.0%), 4.87% or above (88.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.85% or above | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| 4.81% or above | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| 4.87% or above | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 4.83% or above | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| 4.89% or above | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| 4.91% or above | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| 4.93% or above | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| 4.95% or above | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| 4.97% or above | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| 4.99% or above | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| 5.01% or above | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| 5.03% or above | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| 5.05% or above | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| 5.07% or above | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| 5.09% or above | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.85% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.
Sources
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