10Y US Treasury yield on Friday?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:09:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.96% or above (92.0%), 4.98% or above (88.0%), 5.04% or above (88.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 23 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96% or above | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.96% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 23, 2026, or one week following Oct 23, 2026.
Sources
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