Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4% | — | 2.4% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $105 · Liquidity $23K · Price time —
- Kalshi: Volume $58.6K · Liquidity $58.6K · Price time —
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.