US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? — odds by venue

As of Oct 20, 2026, 13:06 UTC, trades at 5% on Polymarket and 6.9% on Kalshi. Combined volume: $863.3K.

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Best price
	5%	6.9%	5% on Polymarket

Venues

Polymarket: Volume $28.8K · Liquidity $10.4K · Price time —
Kalshi: Volume $834.5K · Liquidity $834.5K · Price time —

Resolution rules

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.