Human moon landing in 2026? — odds by venue

As of Oct 20, 2026, 14:32 UTC, trades at 1.2% on Polymarket and 98.9% on Opinion. Combined volume: $45.

Venues

• Polymarket: Volume $20 · Liquidity $21.3K · Price time —
• Opinion: Volume $25 · Liquidity $696.7K · Price time —

Resolution rules

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.