Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 15:20:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 8 (82.5%), November 9 (82.0%), November 7 (82.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 09 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 8 | 82.5% | 82.5¢ | 17.5¢ |
| November 9 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| November 7 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| November 13 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| November 14 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| November 12 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| November 24 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| November 25 | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| November 16 | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| November 19 | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| November 22 | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| November 26 | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| November 28 | 71.5% | 71.5¢ | 28.5¢ |
| November 15 | 71.5% | 71.5¢ | 28.5¢ |
| November 17 | 71.5% | 71.5¢ | 28.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying mil…
Sources
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