Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:18:22 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 23 (75.0%), October 22 (74.5%), October 24 (74.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Sat, 24 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| October 22 | 74.5% | 74.5¢ | 25.5¢ |
| October 24 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| October 21 | 70.5% | 70.5¢ | 29.5¢ |
| October 27 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 31 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 26 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 28 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 29 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 25 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 30 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 20 | 45.5% | 45.5¢ | 54.5¢ |
| October 19 | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying mil…
Sources
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