Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:25:58 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $99K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources
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