Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
As of Sat, 24 Oct 2026 06:18:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (4.5%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $78K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources
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