Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
As of Fri, 28 Aug 2026 20:05:18 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (10.5%), October 31 (1.2%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| October 31 | 1.2% | 1.2¢ | 98.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $57K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify. Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to: announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization; announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization; announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or Mandating a specific number of new call-ups. The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recru…
Sources
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