Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 20:04:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (69.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $28K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, o…
Sources
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