Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:21:12 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (50.5%). The market has $28 in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $28
- Liquidity: $26K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republican candidates both 1) win one or more Senate races in states won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election and 2) lose one or more Senate races in states won by Donald Trump with a margin of victory of 10 or more percentage points in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. A candidate will be considered to be a Republican if they are the nominee of or have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. The margin of victory in a given state in the 2024 Presidential election is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-and second-place candidates in that state. Percentages of the valid votes received by…
Sources
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