Will Dunesday beat Barbenheimer's opening weekend record?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:39:30 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (97.4%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.4% | 97.4¢ | 2.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross of "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" (both releasing December 18, 2026) is greater than the equivalent combined figure for "Barbenheimer" — "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" — of $244,477,464. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates), then added together. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If both "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" do not both release on the weekend of December 18 - December 20, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". If both films release on that weekend but no final data is available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen; if final data remains unavailable be…
Sources
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