Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:36:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (66.1%), No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (31.2%), Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate (1.4%). The market has $42K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 66.1% | 66.1¢ | 33.9¢ |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31.2% | 31.2¢ | 68.8¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $42K
- Liquidity: $213K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Sources
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