Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 13:03:58 UTC, Polymarket traders price No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (65.6%), No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (31.0%), Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate (1.8%). The market has $43K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 65.6% | 65.6¢ | 34.4¢ |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $43K
- Liquidity: $207K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Sources
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