Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:10:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (62.1%), No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (33.9%), Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate (3.1%). The market has $18K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 62.1% | 62.1¢ | 38.0¢ |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 33.9% | 33.9¢ | 66.1¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $18K
- Liquidity: $225K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Sources
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