Who will have a #1 hit this year?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:50:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mariah Carey (91.0%), Morgan Wallen (30.0%), Tate McRae (28.0%). The market has $432K in volume and closes on Sat, 26 Dec 2026.

Updated: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:50:28 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Mariah Carey	91.0%	91.0¢	9.0¢
Morgan Wallen	30.0%	30.0¢	70.0¢
Tate McRae	28.0%	28.0¢	72.0¢
Beyoncé	24.0%	24.0¢	76.0¢
Post Malone	24.0%	24.0¢	76.0¢
Kendrick Lamar	17.0%	17.0¢	83.0¢
Sabrina Carpenter	16.0%	16.0¢	84.0¢
Chappell Roan	15.0%	15.0¢	85.0¢
Billie Eilish	13.0%	13.0¢	87.0¢
Olivia Dean	12.0%	12.0¢	88.0¢
SZA	12.0%	12.0¢	88.0¢
Zach Bryan	12.0%	12.0¢	88.0¢
Lana Del Rey	12.0%	12.0¢	88.0¢
Lady Gaga	11.0%	11.0¢	89.0¢
Future	9.0%	9.0¢	91.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $432K
Liquidity: $432K
Closes: Sat, 26 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mariah Carey:

If Mariah Carey has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi. For the purposes of this market, the last Billboard chart that will be included is the one published for Dec 26, 2026.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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