Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:32:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Mariah Carey (96.7%), Morgan Wallen (24.5%), Post Malone (22.0%). The market has $123K in volume and closes on Sat, 02 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Mariah Carey96.7%96.7¢3.4¢
Morgan Wallen24.5%24.5¢75.5¢
Post Malone22.0%22.0¢78.0¢
Kendrick Lamar21.5%21.5¢78.5¢
Jack Harlow19.7%19.7¢80.3¢
Sabrina Carpenter19.0%19.0¢81.0¢
Doja Cat14.8%14.8¢85.2¢
The Weeknd14.0%14.0¢86.0¢
A$AP Rocky13.7%13.7¢86.3¢
SZA13.5%13.5¢86.5¢
Zach Bryan13.1%13.1¢87.0¢
Luke Combs13.0%13.0¢87.0¢
Travis Scott12.5%12.5¢87.5¢
Future12.3%12.3¢87.8¢
Frank Ocean9.3%9.3¢90.8¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; h…

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