What will Trump say during his announcement?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:51:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Fraud (94.0%), France (74.0%), Ukraine (73.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Fraud94.0%94.0¢6.0¢
France74.0%74.0¢26.0¢
Ukraine73.0%73.0¢27.0¢
Stock Market70.0%70.0¢30.0¢
Biden68.0%68.0¢32.0¢
Healthcare66.0%66.0¢34.0¢
Oil / Gas / Gasoline65.0%65.0¢35.0¢
Midterm65.0%65.0¢35.0¢
Invest / Invested / Investment61.0%61.0¢39.0¢
China / Chinese60.0%60.0¢40.0¢
Billion / Trillion60.0%60.0¢40.0¢
Russia / Russian57.0%57.0¢43.0¢
Inflation53.0%53.0¢47.0¢
Immigrant / Immigration51.0%51.0¢49.0¢
Nuclear49.0%49.0¢51.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Fraud:

If Donald Trump says Fraud as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolv…

Sources

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