What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite keynote?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Copilot (86.0%), Azure (84.0%), Frontier (77.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copilot | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Azure | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Frontier | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| GitHub | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Agent 365 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Foundry | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Cybersecurity | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Cowork | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Autopilot | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| Sovereign Cloud | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| OpenAI | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Anthropic / Claude | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| NVIDIA | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Mistral | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Scout | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Copilot:
If Satya Nadella says Copilot as part of Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Satya Nadella speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumst…
Sources
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