US new home · Median sales price in October
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 17:18:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above $375,000 (56.0%), Above $380,000 (55.0%), Above $395,000 (53.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 02 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $375,000 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Above $380,000 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Above $395,000 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above $400,000 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Above $390,000 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Above $385,000 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Above $415,000 | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| Above $410,000 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above $420,000 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above $425,000 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Above $430,000 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Above $405,000 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above $375,000:
If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 is above $375,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the October 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.
Sources
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