US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 15:22:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above -10% (57.0%), Above -2% (53.0%), Above -4% (53.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -10% | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Above -2% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above -4% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above -6% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 0% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 2% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 4% | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above -8% | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above 6% | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Above 10% | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Above 8% | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above -10%:
If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -10%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first-published percentage change in MBA’s seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first new Weekly Applications Survey results release after market Issuance. All strikes use the same release, including strikes added later. The reported change is used directly, including holiday adjustments and regardless of the comparison period; no calculation is required. If separate changes are reported for multiple reference weeks, the latest reference week controls. Increases are positive, decreases negative, and unchanged is 0%. “Above” means strictly greater than the strike. Later revisions, corrections, and subsequent releases are ignored. If publication is delayed, trading remains closed pending the qualifying release, subject to the latest expiration and the contract’s missing-data provisions.
Sources
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