US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:20:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above -100,000 (70.0%), Above 0 (48.0%), Above -50,000 (43.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 13 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -100,000 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Above 0 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Above -50,000 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 100,000 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Above 50,000 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above -100,000:
If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in total nonfarm payroll employment for the two months immediately preceding October 2026, relative to their estimates in the immediately preceding Employment Situation release. The two revisions will be added together, with upward revisions positive and downward revisions negative. Resolution will use the combined revision stated in the initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026; if no combined figure is stated, the two individual revisions will be summed. Any benchmark or seasonal-adjustment effects incorporated into those two monthly revisions are included. Separate annual benchmark figures and revisions to other months are excluded. Subsequent revisions will not affect the outcome.
Sources
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