US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 06:52:55 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (74.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74.5% | 74.5¢ | 25.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither an import of Russian diesel fuel to the United States nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only imports of Russian diesel fuel to the United States after market creation will be considered. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or…
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
- US strike on Mexico by...?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.