US hourly earnings growth in October
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:19:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above -0.1% (99.0%), Above 0.0% (95.0%), Above 0.1% (87.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 13 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 0.0% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 0.1% | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Above 0.2% | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Above 0.3% | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Above 0.4% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above -0.1%:
If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls stated in the initial Employment Situation release for the reference month. The measure is seasonally adjusted and is not adjusted for inflation. The percentage change will be used at BLS’s published precision, rather than recalculated from the hourly earnings dollar amounts. Subsequent revisions will not affect the outcome.
Sources
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