Time's Person of the Year for 2026

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:20:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Zohran Mamdani (29.0%), Pope Leo XIV (16.0%), Mark Carney (13.0%). The market has $1.9M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:20:34 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Zohran Mamdani	29.0%	29.0¢	71.0¢
Pope Leo XIV	16.0%	16.0¢	84.0¢
Mark Carney	13.0%	13.0¢	87.0¢
Benjamin Netanyahu	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Dario Amodei	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Donald Trump	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Elon Musk	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
James Talarico	7.0%	7.0¢	93.0¢
Reid Wiseman	7.0%	7.0¢	93.0¢
AI	7.0%	7.0¢	93.0¢
Sam Altman	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Abdul El-Sayed	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Jeremy Hansen	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Victor Glover	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Christina Koch	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $1.9M
Liquidity: $1.9M
Closes: Fri, 01 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Zohran Mamdani:

If Zohran Mamdani is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes. This does NOT count towards the payout criterion: If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are…

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.