Texas Governor: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Gina Hinojosa, 0-2% (18.0%), Greg Abbott, 2-4% (15.0%), Greg Abbott, 0-2% (14.0%). The market has $44K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa, 0-2% | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 2-4% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 0-2% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, 2-4% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 4-6% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 6-8% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, 4-6% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, ≥6% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 10-12% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, ≥12% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 8-10% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $44K
- Liquidity: $44K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Gina Hinojosa, 0-2%:
If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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