Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 23, 2026
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:49:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 60,000 MW (98.0%), Above 60,500 MW (98.0%), Above 61,000 MW (98.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60,000 MW | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 60,500 MW | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 61,000 MW | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 61,500 MW | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 62,000 MW | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 62,500 MW | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 63,000 MW | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 63,500 MW | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Above 64,000 MW | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| Above 64,500 MW | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Above 65,000 MW | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Above 66,500 MW | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 66,000 MW | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above 67,000 MW | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above 68,500 MW | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 60,000 MW:
If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 22, 2026 is above 60,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 22, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.
Sources
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